Despite the research into the psychology and behavior of how people place football bets, there’s still a lot to unearth and much left to the imagination. Football is notoriously difficult to predict – and no tipster will get every prediction correct; it’s important to read into their theories as subjectively as possible.
Although there are certain variables to consider in predictor psychology, gaining an insight into how these experts think and what they base their assessment on are two key things to understand about betting psychology.
“Football tipsters, hardcore fans, and ex-professionals all like to throw their two cents in when it comes to predicting the outcome of a game or a season. However, with so many self-proclaimed experts on the digital scene, finding the ones who know the sport and can back it up with the facts can be time-consuming. Look for ones with a visible presence online and a track record of putting facts before opinions.” – Eugene Ravdin – author MightyTips.
Key Variables – Not Allowing Emotion To Creep In
Analysis, research, and copious levels of study should make up the foundation of any prediction psychology. Running mindlessly off theories, memory, and intelligence isn’t useless, but a multifarious approach is highly recommended.
Perhaps what is so crucial about research and analysis is that it removes bias from the equation. With such vocal and strident support for their domestic teams, many view their local pride and joy as an extension of the greater community and what it represents, particularly in the UK.
However, allowing emotions to not encroach into your football prediction is difficult; we are only human, after all, and wherever there is the possibility of financial gain on the cards, whether it is through betting, trading, or business ventures, controlling our emotions and keeping level-headed is essential.
“Unless you control your emotions, you’re not going to do very well in the stock market.” – Warren Buffett
While Buffett is a trading expert, his ability to think rationally when financial costs are on the line and his ability to keep emotions at the door are two variables both industries have in common.
Kevin Keegan’s famous rant is widely thought to have cost Newcastle United the Premier League back in the 1990s, highlighting just how important it is to try and leave emotions at the door when dealing with any variable of football.
Knowing What Factors Can Make A Difference
Since football is a game that can change in the blink of an eye, courtesy of a moment of magic from any of the 22 players out on the pitch, there’s never one definitive factor that determines the outcome of the game. However, there are some elements that tipsters will cite as a potential correlation and possible indicators that could help you make a more accurate prediction:
- Head-to-head records.
- The impact of high profile injuries and suspensions.
- Quality of the team and league position.
- How a team has performed at home, or away from home, collectively in the season so far.
For instance, predicting Manchester City to beat Everton this season wouldn’t have exactly been the most astonishing call of the century. They are the defending UEFA Champions League and Premier League winners, with a far more expensive team.
Not to mention, Manchester City has won the league three times in a row; we’re living through a true English footballing dynasty. So the idea of predicting they’ll beat teams in disarray who are struggling to survive isn’t where the skill is in predicting football results.
Negative Variables To Consider When Predicting Football Results
Predictor psychology, for many, is more of an art than a skill. Since football can produce fluke results and often surprise us, it makes the position of a football tipster or predictor even more precarious. Understanding the components we touched on in the previous section is a positive route; they can provide nuance and, on rare occasions, offer some value.
Predicting outcomes on leagues you don’t follow, or games where you don’t understand the specifics of each team going into that specific match are quickfire ways to get your prediction badly wrong.
Too often, especially in the age of social media, far more people are scared to say they don’t understand or know something and would rather make inaccurate predictions fervently, often acting out of pure ego. Ultimately, this ties back to what we said earlier about emotions playing a negative role in predicting football results.
Final Thoughts
Intelligence, rationale, and perception are essential tools for any predictor psychology. Current UEFA estimates put the figure at over 4 billion, and some put it nearer to 5. Undeniably, it is the world’s top sport and attracts millions of fans looking to put their predictions in for the upcoming games.
Aleksander Čeferin, the UEFA President, stated that “European football remains the global leader in game development and continues to captivate audiences worldwide.”
The sport can capture the imagination that makes football predictions such an engaging topic. Once you mix the subjectivity, opinion, mass amounts of data, and an engrained passion for the game, you begin to see how far-reaching and genuinely fascinating the psychology behind football betting and accurately predicting results is.